Thursday, February 17, 2011

ESPN's Bill Simmons Rates Aldridge's Current Trade Value As "Effectively Untouchable"

Bill Simmons wrote an article where he listed the top 50 players in the NBA, in terms of their theoretical trade value.  LaMarcus Aldridge came in at number 15 on the list.  Aldridge's sudden and somewhat dramatic improvement continues to impress anyone and everyone who knows (or writes) anything about the game of basketball.

"When I watch Aldridge this year, I think to myself, He's different. He's playing like a center. He's going down low. He's rebounding more. He's becoming a player I never imagined he could be. Conventional metrics tell us he's playing better and getting more shots, something backed up by his usage-rate numbers (22.9 percent last year, 26.3 percent this year).

2009-10: 17.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 0.6 BPG, 49.5% FG, 76% FT, 15.0 FGA, 3.9 FTA, 37.3 MPG

2010-11: 22.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 49.7% FG, 79% FT, 17.7 FGA, 5.9 FTA, 39.4 MPG

Still, those numbers don't totally tell me HOW he's playing. That's why you have to love hoopdata.com, a site that breaks down scoring by zones. Last season, Aldridge attempted only 3.9 shots at the rim, 2.6 shots within 10 feet, 3.1 shots from 10-15 feet, 5.2 shots from 16-23 feet and 0.2 3s … so basically, 57 percent of his shots were long jumpers or 3s. This season, those numbers magically shifted: 6.7 shots at the rim, 3.9 within 10 feet and 7.0 shots from beyond 10 feet, meaning 60 percent of his shots now come from close range. I don't like basketball metrics that pit players against one another, but I like when they help me confirm (or in some cases, refute) what I think I'm seeing. Aldridge changed his game, started playing more like a center, grabbed a bigger piece of the offense and now he's on a whole other level. It's really that simple.

(Note to Rip City: I wanted to vault Aldridge into the next group, but he's been kicking butt for only two months -- I can't tell if it's a hot streak or something more. Had to play it safe considering he has a $70 million contract. Just know that I put a ton of thought into it; I appreciate how he's carrying your banged-up team right now; I don't eat poop; I'm not an idiot; and I don't want to have sex with myself. Wait, don't start another scathing message board thread -- NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)"

[ Trading Places -- Bill Simmons ]