Saturday, January 14, 2012

Gerald Wallace or Nicolas Batum? Blazers Probably Can't Keep Both

Isn't It a Thing Of Beauty?
The current NBA season for your Portland Trailblazers has been quite the pleasant surprise.  I thought that losing Brandon Roy was going to hurt the team more than it has so far.  And although I think I gave up on the idea of Greg Oden ever suiting up for the Blazers again after last season's setback, it still really sucks that we're not going to be seeing him on the court yet again this year.

But the Blazers also made some moves this offseason that seem to be working out pretty well so far this season. To me, trading Andre Miller for Raymond Felton was more or less a lateral move (except that Miller was not getting any younger).  Adding Kurt Thomas as that veteran backup role player that every team needs was very smart and a couple years overdue.  And coaxing Jamal Crawford to sign here with Portland instead of Sacramento (Really, Jamal?  Sacramento was one of your final two choices??) may not have made a splash across the league, but was practically a steal at 2 years and $10 million (although he will probably opt out after this season, and the Blazers will only have to pay him $5 million for the one year).

So despite some maddening losses so far this season (losing to Phoenix, Orlando, San Antonio and Houston), the Blazers seem to be on their way to successfully turning the page from the Brandon Roy/Greg Oden era, to a new era.

Recently, reports have emerged about both of the contract situations with Nic Batum and Gerald Wallace.  Gerald Wallace's deal is that he actually likes it here in Portland (at first he did not), and he has said that he wouldn't mind spending the rest of his playing days here in Portland.  Wallace and his agents have stated that they will not seek a contract extension during this season, and will worry about it after the season's over.  I guess he hasn't officially opted out, but the assumption across the NBA is that he will opt out, even if he does end up coming back to Portland.  Either way, he's going to make sure he gets a raise.

The deal with Batum is a little bit different.  He has said that he doesn't intend on going anywhere and that he loves it here in Portland.  But as we all know, this is what the players have to say when contract negotiation time rolls around.  (News came out today that apparently, the team's initial offer to Batum was considered a "low ball" offer, so that can't be a good thing.)  The Blazers have until January 25th to come to an agreement with Batum and his camp, or he'll become a restricted free agent.  At that point, if Portland still plans to extend Batum, they can't do anything about it until after July 1st.

If you're curious, this article by Kerry Eggers breaks out some of what the numbers might look like:  "If he opts out, Wallace will want a pay raise.  For argument's sake, let's start at $11 million and increase it to $14 million by the fifth year of his new deal, when he is 34.

The Blazers can give the 6-8 Batum a four-year extension if done by Jan. 25 or a five-year extension if it comes next summer.  I could see a four-year deal for about $30 million, starting at $6.5 million and increasing to $8.5 million in the fourth season, when he is 27 and just reaching his physical prime.

Under those circumstances, it would cost Portland more than $17 million next season to retain both players.  That's a lot of payout for the small forward position."

I am no John Hollinger, so I can't get all statistical on you right now about Batum and Wallace.  But there are advantages that each guy brings.  With Batum, he's younger, he is a better long range shooter, and he'll cost you less to bring back.  With Wallace, for lack of a better term, I would say that his game, both offensively and defensively, is more refined across the board.  I think he's tougher on defense and more intimidating, not to say that Batum is not tough.

Kerry Eggers says he'd chose to keep Batum and let Wallace walk in free agency, citing Batum's age and the lower dollar figure he'll demand, as the main reasons to bring him back.  As a Blazer fan, obviously I wish we could bring them both back.  But in today's NBA, that just isn't going to happen.  Last night, I asked Lindsay McCormick on Twitter who she would prefer to bring back, and she said, "If you want a win now team, then Wallace.  If you want to rebuild and win a championship in 2017 then go with Batum."

I'm not sure the Blazers would have to completely rebuild if they chose Batum over Wallace, but McCormick makes a good point.  If the Blazers choose to keep Wallace, they have to win now.  And if I was the one calling the shots, that's exactly what I'd do.  Or at least try to do.  I would keep Gerald Wallace by signing him to that 5 year deal that only Portland can offer him, because of the Larry Bird rule.  That will keep Wallace in Portland until he's 34, and in the NBA, the statistics show that players can still produce at a high level at 34 years old.  When you get past 34 years old, that's when the numbers show that all bets are off.

Not sure what they would be able to get if the Blazers were to put Batum on the trading block, but by all accounts, his trade value is still quite high.  There are no doubt plenty of teams that would line up to have a shot at prying Nic Batum away from the Blazers.